Reading an Auction Estimate
The estimate is the most informative sentence in a catalogue, because it is the only part the house has to live with.
In short
- Estimates are always quoted without the buyer's premium.
- The low estimate is usually near the reserve; the reserve is never above it.
- A wide range signals genuine uncertainty about the market, not about the object.
- 'Estimate on request' means the house expects a very large number.
What the numbers are
A lot carries a low and a high estimate, both excluding the buyer's premium. Behind them sits the reserve, the confidential minimum below which the house will not sell. The reserve cannot exceed the low estimate, which means the low estimate is a soft floor with real information in it.
The estimate is a commercial forecast, not a valuation. It is set to attract bidding, which frequently means pitching low enough to start a contest.
What the spread tells you
A tight spread indicates confidence: comparable material has traded recently at a predictable level. A wide spread indicates that the department cannot predict the outcome, which usually reflects thin comparables rather than doubt about the object.
The extreme case is the unpublished estimate. 'Estimate on request' or 'refer department' signals a number large enough that publishing it would deter bidders or embarrass the seller if unmet.
When a result beats an estimate, and when it only appears to
Because estimates exclude the premium and headline results usually include it, a lot can be reported as exceeding its estimate while having sold at or below it. This is the single most common numerical distortion in art reporting and it consistently overstates market strength.
The correct comparison is hammer against estimate. Anything else is comparing two different quantities.
Estimates as a record of what was known
An estimate is also a historical document about the state of knowledge on the day of the sale. The Cimabue panel from a kitchen in Compiegne was first estimated at three to four hundred thousand euros before anyone understood it, then revised to four to six million once the attribution work was done. It made 19.5 million at the hammer.
Recorded properly, that sequence tells you exactly what attribution research is worth, which is a thing very few numbers in this market measure directly.
Questions
No. It is confidential between house and consignor, but it cannot exceed the low estimate, which constrains it usefully.
The lot failed to reach its reserve and did not sell. It remains the consignor's property.
No. Nor premium, nor artist's resale right where it applies.